Typhoon 'Ramil' gains strength, still heading towards Northern Luzon

From Manila Bulletin | 10/18/2009 5:37 pm

‘Ramil’ gains strength, threatens north Luzon

Typhoon “Ramil” further strengthened Sunday as it continued to threaten extreme northern Luzon provinces.

Dr. Prisco Nilo, head of the government’s weather agency, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said forecast models for the next three days indicate that “Ramil” – which could turn into a super typhoon while at the Pacific Ocean – will make landfall either on Wednesday night or Thursday morning over the northern part of Cagayan province.

Central Luzon provinces which are still reeling from the devastation of typhoon “Pepeng” like Cagayan might also feel the wrath of strong winds and rains of “Ramil,” according to Nilo.

On the other hand, Metro Manila which is also still recovering from the damage wrought by tropical storm “Ondoy” was declared out of harm’s way.

Nilo said there is however a “20 percent chance” that “Ramil” would spare Northern Luzon provinces of further damage by veering towards Taiwan.

“This would only happen if the ‘trough’ located north of the typhoon would maintain its position for the next two days,” he added.

The “trough” – an elongated area of low atmospheric pressure – should maintain its position and continue to dominate the high pressure area (HPA) over Hong Kong, Nilo explained, so the latter would not influence “Ramil” to move northwest or towards the direction of extreme northern Luzon.

This, however, is unlikely to happen as the trough is slowly moving toward the eastern direction already yesterday, Nilo said.

Nilo, said that this early, those areas forecasted to be affected by the typhoon should already prepare for any eventuality.

But according to Nilo, in terms of wind strength, “Ramil” is stronger than “Pepeng.”

In terms of the amount of rain it would dump, it would still depend on how fast its movement would be.

“Mas mabagal, mas madaming ulan,” Nilo said.

As of 10 a.m. Sunday, “Ramil” was spotted some 1,060 kilometers (kms.) east-southeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 1,010 kms. northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.

The typhoon gained more strength even as it continued to slow down. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 210 kph.

“Ramil” was forecasted to remain almost stationary.

No public storm warning signals were raised by PAGASA in any part of the country as the weather disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.

“Ramil” was forecasted to be at 1,060 kms. east of Aparri, Cagayan Monday; 820 kms. east of Aparri, Cagayan on Tuesday morning; and 490 kms. east of Aparri, Cagayan by Wednesday morning.

PAGASA spokesman Nathaniel Cruz said Ramil is expected to move to the north slowly within the next 24 hours then shift direction to the west northwest or west.

“There will be scattered rains and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening over Southern Luzon and the Visayas for the next three days due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

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